Kais Saied's landslide reelection strengthens his grip on power

President Kais Saied achieved a decisive victory in Tunisia's election on Monday, solidifying his hold on power following a first term marked by the imprisonment of opponents and significant changes to the country's institutions that expanded his authority.

According to Farouk Bouaskar, the head of the Independent High Authority for Elections (ISIE), the voter turnout was recorded at 28.8%, with 2,808,548 votes cast from a total of 9,753,217 eligible voters.

The authority also stated that Saied received 90.7% of the votes, just one day after exit polls suggested he had a considerable lead in the North African country, known as the origin of the Arab Spring more than a decade ago.

Businessman Ayachi Zammel, the nearest competitor, garnered 7.4% of the vote despite spending most of the campaign in prison due to various sentences for election-related offenses.

However, Saied's victory was overshadowed by a disappointing voter turnout.

Election officials indicated that only 28.8% of eligible voters participated on October 6, a stark decline compared to the first rounds of the country's previous two elections following the Arab Spring, reflecting widespread apathy among the 9.7 million eligible voters.

Saied's main rivals, who have been imprisoned since last year, were barred from participating, while lesser-known candidates faced imprisonment or exclusion from the ballot.

Opposition parties chose to boycott the election, labelling it a farce amid Tunisia's worsening political situation and increasing authoritarianism.

Over the weekend, the atmosphere in Tunisia showed little indication of an election, aside from an anti-Saied protest on Friday and celebrations in the capital on Sunday night.

Tarek Megerisi, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, stated on X that "He will return to office weakened rather than strengthened by these elections."

Critics of Saied have vowed to continue their opposition to his governance.

Amri Sofien, a freelance filmmaker, expressed a bleak outlook, saying, “It’s possible that after 20 years our kids will protest on Avenue Habib Bourguiba to demand his removal.” He added, “There is no hope in this country.”

This sense of hopelessness starkly contrasts with the Tunisia of 2011, when demonstrators rallied for “bread, freedom, and dignity,” leading to the ousting of the president and the establishment of a multiparty democracy.

In the years that followed, Tunisia adopted a new constitution, formed a Truth and Dignity Commission to address injustices faced by citizens under the previous regime, and saw its prominent civil society organizations awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for facilitating political dialogue.

However, the new leadership struggled to revive the struggling economy and quickly lost popularity due to ongoing political disputes and incidents of terrorism and violence.

In this context, Saied, initially an outsider in politics, secured his first term in 2019 with a pledge to fight corruption.

His supporters were pleased when, in 2021, he declared a state of emergency, dissolved parliament, and revised the constitution to strengthen presidential authority—actions that many critics described as a coup.

A year later, Tunisians voted in favor of the new constitution in a referendum, although the turnout was significantly low.

Following this, the government initiated a crackdown on the previously active civil society.

By 2023, several of Saied's key political adversaries, including right-wing leader Abir Moussi and Islamist Rached Ghannouchi, co-founder of the Ennahda party and former parliament speaker, were imprisoned.

Numerous others faced charges such as inciting unrest, threatening state security, and breaching a contentious anti-fake news law that critics argue is aimed at suppressing opposition.

The frequency of arrests escalated earlier this year, with authorities also targeting lawyers, journalists, activists, migrants from sub-Saharan Africa, and the former head of the post-Arab Spring Truth and Dignity Commission.