ECOWAS establishes exit timeline for coup-affected nations

West Africa's regional organization, ECOWAS, has set an exit timeline for three nations affected by coups, following nearly a year of mediation efforts aimed at preventing a significant fracture within the bloc.

Omar Touray, the president of the ECOWAS Commission, announced that the transitional period will run from January 29, 2025, to July 29, 2025, while keeping the door open for the three countries during this time.

At the summit's opening, Touray expressed that the decision was "disheartening."

In January, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger declared their intention to withdraw from ECOWAS, citing the bloc's sanctions and its failure to address their ongoing security challenges.

Membership in ECOWAS offers significant advantages, such as visa-free travel among member states, and it remains uncertain how this will be affected once the three nations exit the organization.

In a historic move for the nearly 50-year-old bloc, the military governments of Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso have firmly rejected ECOWAS' attempts to persuade them to reconsider their departure, and they are exploring the possibility of issuing their own travel documents and forming a separate alliance.

The one-year notice period for their exit is expected to conclude as planned.

Touray praised the dedication of the bloc's envoys in their efforts to address the ongoing crisis.

“These initiatives highlight your shared commitment to maintaining peace and unity in our region,” he remarked.

Bola Tinubu, Nigeria's president and chairman of ECOWAS, emphasized that the global and regional challenges test their collaborative spirit.

“We must remain focused on our primary duty, which is to safeguard our citizens and foster an environment where they can thrive,” he stated.

One significant advantage of being part of ECOWAS is the ability to travel freely among member states, and it remains uncertain how this will be affected by the departure of three countries from the bloc.

When questioned about the potential consequences in July, the president of the ECOWAS commission noted, “Exiting an agreement... particularly one concerning free trade and the movement of people, carries the risk of losing those benefits.”

On Saturday, the three nations issued a joint statement declaring that while their territories would continue to be accessible without visas for other West African citizens, they “reserve the right … to deny entry to any ECOWAS national categorized as inadmissible immigrants.”

Since its establishment in 1975, ECOWAS has been West Africa's leading political authority, and this division represents its most significant challenge to date, according to Babacar Ndiaye, a senior fellow at the Timbuktu Institute for Peace Studies in Senegal.

The likelihood of ECOWAS successfully reintegrating the three countries is low, primarily because the bloc seeks a swift return to democratic governance, which the military juntas have not pledged to uphold, explained Mucahid Durmaz, a senior analyst at global risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft.

Allowing the juntas to maintain power “could lead to further regional fragmentation,” while acknowledging them as legitimate authorities would signify “a serious deviation from ECOWAS’s founding principles,” Durmaz added.

He also pointed out that the regional bloc has not effectively managed the situation.

Durmaz remarked that the bloc's varied reactions to coups in the area suggest that its position is shaped more by the political aspirations of its member states rather than by its core mission of fostering democratic governance.